The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its June employment report on Thursday, with economists forecasting continued moderation in hiring and an unemployment rate holding near 4.3%. The data was moved forward a day because of the Independence Day holiday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters and Bloomberg expected nonfarm payrolls to rise by roughly 100,000 to 130,000 in June, down from stronger gains earlier in the year. Average hourly earnings were projected to increase about 0.3% on the month, keeping annual wage growth near 3.8%.

The report arrives as the Federal Reserve weighs the timing of any interest-rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly told Congress that the central bank wants clearer evidence of a softening labour market and easing inflation before lowering borrowing costs from their current range.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan analysts said a soft but not alarming reading would reinforce expectations that the Fed keeps rates steady at its late-July meeting. A sharp downside surprise could revive bets on a cut and lift Treasury markets, while a strong number would push cut expectations further out.

The payrolls data caps a holiday-shortened trading week, with US stock and bond markets closing early on Thursday and shut on Friday for the Independence Day observance.