Saudi Aramco is expected to report a decline in second-quarter net profit on Sunday, as lower average oil prices and constrained output erode earnings at the world's largest energy company. Analysts tracking the Riyadh-listed firm forecast results below the same period last year.

The company, majority owned by the Saudi government and the Public Investment Fund, has faced softer benchmark Brent prices through the first half of 2026. OPEC+ production decisions, in which Saudi Arabia plays the leading role, have shaped volumes even as the group unwound earlier voluntary cuts.

Aramco's dividend remains a central focus for investors, given its importance to the Saudi state budget and the kingdom's Vision 2030 diversification programme. In previous quarters the company maintained substantial base and performance-linked payouts despite weaker cash generation, raising questions among analysts about sustainability at lower crude prices.

The results carry weight for Saudi Arabia's fiscal position, as oil revenue funds major projects including NEOM and other giga-projects. A softer earnings picture could increase pressure on government borrowing, with the finance ministry having already tapped international debt markets during 2026.

Aramco executives were expected to reaffirm capital spending plans and long-term production capacity targets on an accompanying earnings call, emphasising the company's low production costs and its expansion into gas and downstream chemicals.