Macy's Inc. is expected to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Monday that modestly exceed Wall Street consensus estimates, as the department store chain's turnaround strategy under its 'Bold New Chapter' restructuring plan continues to yield measurable results despite a difficult consumer spending environment. Analysts had projected adjusted earnings per share of approximately $0.13–$0.16 on revenues near $4.7 billion, with investors closely watching whether the company's premium banners can compensate for weakness in its core mid-tier Macy's stores.
Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, which cater to higher-income shoppers less exposed to tariff-driven price anxiety, are expected to outperform the flagship Macy's brand for the third consecutive quarter. The company has been closing underperforming locations as part of its plan to shutter roughly 150 stores by 2026, and management is likely to highlight improved productivity metrics at the remaining go-forward locations during the Monday morning earnings call.
Chief Executive Tony Spring, who has led the restructuring effort since early 2024, is anticipated to address the impact of US tariffs on imported apparel and housewares, which represent a significant portion of Macy's merchandise mix. The retailer has been working to diversify its supplier base away from China, though analysts note that full mitigation will take several more quarters. Gross margin performance will be a key focus for investors given rising input costs.
The broader retail environment provides a mixed backdrop. Consumer confidence has remained fragile amid persistent tariff uncertainty, and discretionary spending on apparel and home goods has lagged essentials-focused categories. However, Colorado tourism data and summer travel trends signal that upper-income consumers are spending on experiences and lifestyle goods, which could provide a modest tailwind for Bloomingdale's comparable sales. Analysts at JPMorgan and Citi have flagged the luxury nameplate segment as the most defensible part of Macy's portfolio.
Shares of Macy's have underperformed the broader S&P 500 year-to-date, and a beat-and-maintain guidance scenario — rather than an outright raise — is the most likely outcome given macro uncertainty. Still, any indication that go-forward store productivity is improving faster than expected, or that digital penetration is accelerating, could provide a modest lift to the stock when markets open Tuesday after the Memorial Day holiday.