The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday, with economists expecting annual inflation to hold near or slightly above 3% as import tariffs filter through to retail prices. The reading will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's July meeting.

Economists polled by Reuters and Bloomberg have forecast headline CPI rising around 0.3% on the month, leaving the annual rate close to 3%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, is expected to remain sticky as goods prices reflect duties imposed on imports.

Energy costs add fresh uncertainty after oil prices jumped more than 8% this week when President Donald Trump reimposed a blockade on Iranian exports. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have warned that sustained crude gains could push future inflation prints higher and delay any easing.

Federal Reserve policymakers are divided over the inflationary impact of tariffs. Minutes from the June meeting showed disagreement on timing, and a firm CPI figure would strengthen the case for holding rates steady.

The release coincides with second-quarter earnings season, as major US banks and companies report results. Investors will parse both inflation figures and corporate guidance for signs of how tariffs and higher input costs are squeezing margins and household spending.