The International Energy Agency is expected to hold an emergency consultative session on Friday involving key Asian member and partner states, after testimony before British MPs this week warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger an energy drought across Asia within weeks. Equinor, Europe's major gas supplier, confirmed it has already begun contingency planning for alternative routing, but acknowledged that Asian LNG markets face the most acute exposure.

Japan, South Korea, and India — collectively responsible for more than 40 percent of global LNG imports transiting the strait — have each placed their energy ministries on heightened alert. South Korean officials indicated Friday that state energy firm KOGAS had activated emergency procurement protocols to secure alternative spot cargoes from Australia and the United States Gulf Coast, though analysts warn that redirecting volumes at this scale would take two to three weeks at minimum.

The crisis stems from escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf, with Iran having signalled in recent days that it retains the right to restrict navigation through the strait in response to new Western sanctions pressure. Tanker insurers have already raised war-risk premiums on Hormuz passages by an estimated 30 percent this week, according to Lloyd's of London market sources, a development that is beginning to feed through into spot LNG prices.

Energy ministers from ASEAN nations are also scheduled to hold a video call Friday to coordinate a collective diplomatic message urging de-escalation, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the discussions. Indonesia and Thailand, which rely heavily on Persian Gulf oil imports, are expected to press for an emergency OPEC+ communication to reassure markets that land-route and alternative shipping options can be mobilised quickly.

Analysts at Wood Mackenzie cautioned that while a full Hormuz closure remains a tail risk rather than a base case, the market is now pricing in a meaningful probability of partial disruption. 'Even a 20 percent reduction in throughput would be the most significant supply shock since the 2022 energy crisis,' one senior analyst said. Asian benchmark LNG prices rose sharply in overnight trading Friday, with JKM spot contracts climbing toward $18 per MMBtu, the highest level in over a year.