The World Meteorological Organization said on Monday that 2026 is on course to be the second-warmest year on record. It published its provisional State of the Global Climate report in Antalya, Turkey, as the COP31 climate summit opened. The UN agency said global temperatures from January to September averaged roughly 1.4C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.

The Geneva-based agency combines six international temperature datasets for its assessment, including those of Copernicus, NASA and the UK Met Office. The WMO said the period from 2015 to 2026 now contains the twelve warmest years since records began. Only 2024, when the global average briefly exceeded 1.5C, ranked higher.

The report linked the late-year surge in heat to an El Niño event that has strengthened through the northern autumn. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported last week that October 2026 was the warmest October on record.

The WMO said ocean heat content and global sea level both reached new highs this year. It added that greenhouse gas concentrations continued to climb.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the long-term warming trend left the Paris Agreement's 1.5C goal in serious jeopardy. She urged delegates to accelerate emissions cuts and to fund early-warning systems for vulnerable countries. Climate scientists at the University of Reading noted that a mature El Niño typically pushes the following year's temperatures higher still.

The findings set a stark backdrop for two weeks of negotiations in Antalya, held under joint Turkish and Australian leadership. Delegates are due to consider new national climate plans and climate finance commitments. The WMO said it would publish its final 2026 figures in early 2027, once full-year data are available.