TOKYO — Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba survived a no-confidence vote in Japan's House of Representatives on Friday, but the margin was far narrower than his Liberal Democratic Party had anticipated, exposing deep fissures within the ruling coalition over Japan's unprecedented defence spending expansion. The motion, tabled by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and backed by Nippon Ishin no Kai, was defeated 221 votes to 209, with six LDP members abstaining in what political analysts called the most significant internal rebellion the party has faced in over a decade.

The vote followed weeks of mounting tension over Ishiba's plan to raise Japan's defence budget to 2 percent of GDP by fiscal year 2027, a target that requires controversial new bond issuance and a partial revision of corporate tax exemptions. The dissenting LDP lawmakers, led by former cabinet minister Sanae Takaichi, argued that the financing mechanism would burden future generations and undermine fiscal consolidation pledges made to international creditors and the IMF. Takaichi stopped short of voting with the opposition but confirmed to reporters outside the Diet building that her abstention was a 'deliberate signal' to party leadership.

Opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda of the CDPJ told a press conference in Nagatacho that the result represented 'a government held together with tape,' and pledged to introduce a revised no-confidence motion within 60 days if the defence financing bill was passed without amendment. The Komeito party, the LDP's junior coalition partner, issued a statement expressing 'full support' for Prime Minister Ishiba but privately, Komeito officials acknowledged to reporters that internal negotiations over the bill's tax provisions remained unresolved as of Friday evening.

Markets reacted cautiously to news of the slim margin. The yen strengthened modestly against the dollar in late Tokyo trading, while Japanese government bond yields edged higher as investors weighed the possibility of early general elections. Japan's next scheduled general election is not due until October 2027, but a second no-confidence vote or further LDP defections could compel Ishiba to dissolve the lower house and seek a fresh public mandate, analysts at Nomura Securities noted in a research note published Friday afternoon.

Political observers in Tokyo said the episode underscored the precarious position Ishiba has occupied since his narrow election as LDP leader in late 2024. 'He won the leadership race but never fully consolidated the party machine,' said Koichi Nakano, a political scientist at Sophia University. 'Today's vote is a warning shot. The question is whether he recalibrates on the defence financing details or doubles down — either choice carries serious political risk heading into the upper house elections scheduled for July.' The Prime Minister is expected to address the nation in a televised statement on Saturday morning.