NHS England figures published on Thursday are expected to show the hospital waiting list in England falling to just over 7.1 million, its lowest level since 2022. Separate data are expected to show a record number of A&E patients waiting more than 12 hours in October. The figures are a test of the government's twin promises on planned care and emergency care before winter.

The monthly performance statistics, released on the second Thursday of each month, cover elective treatment waits to the end of September and emergency department activity in October. The Department of Health and Social Care has made cutting the elective backlog central to its NHS recovery plan. Ministers have pledged that 92% of patients will start treatment within 18 weeks by the end of the parliament.

The share of patients seen within 18 weeks is expected to remain in the mid-60s per cent. That would leave it short of the interim goals set in NHS England's planning guidance. Hospital trusts have expanded weekend clinics, community diagnostic centres and validation of waiting lists, which removes patients no longer needing treatment. NHS England has said these steps account for much of the recent fall.

Emergency care is expected to tell a harsher story. The Royal College of Emergency Medicine has warned for months that long waits on trolleys are rising. It says bed occupancy above 90% and delayed discharges into social care leave patients stranded in corridors. An early flu season, flagged by the UK Health Security Agency in recent weeks, has added pressure on admissions.

NHS Providers, which represents hospital trusts in England, has said progress on planned operations risks being undone if winter forces trusts to cancel elective work. Health think tanks including the King's Fund have argued that progress on waiting lists cannot be sustained without fixing patient flow through hospitals. The next set of figures, in December, will be the first to capture the full impact of winter on emergency departments.