TotalEnergies SE announced on Thursday that it is placing three planned upstream development projects in West Africa — including a second-phase expansion of its Gabon operations and two prospective sites in Côte d'Ivoire — under an emergency strategic review, citing volatile global fuel price dynamics and deteriorating refinery margins in key markets. The announcement came one day after the company released its 2025 financial results for its Gabon subsidiary, TotalEnergies EP Gabon, which showed narrowing free cash flow despite elevated crude benchmarks.

The company's Chief Financial Officer, Jean-Pierre Sbraire, addressed analysts in a hastily convened call Thursday morning from the Paris headquarters, stating that while headline Brent prices remain elevated, the spread between production costs and downstream realisation in African markets had compressed sharply in Q1 2026. 'We are not retreating from Africa,' Sbraire said. 'We are being disciplined about where and when we deploy capital in an environment where consumer fuel affordability is creating political and regulatory risk across multiple jurisdictions.'

The announcement immediately rattled energy investors in Paris and London. TotalEnergies shares fell 3.4 percent on the Euronext by midday Thursday, dragging broader European energy indices lower. Analysts at Bernstein and Jefferies both downgraded their near-term price targets, with Bernstein noting that the pause signals a broader shift away from African frontier exploration that could persist through at least mid-2027 if fuel price pressures persist in markets like Australia, the UK, and parts of Southeast Asia.

The backdrop to the decision is a confluence of forces that have been building for weeks. Consumer fuel prices across multiple continents have surged to multi-year highs, prompting government inquiries in Australia and the United Kingdom and sparking public anger that has increased political pressure on major oil companies to justify upstream spending. Industry observers note that TotalEnergies is reading the room carefully ahead of anticipated windfall-profit legislative proposals in France and at the EU level expected later in the spring.

For Gabon specifically, the review raises questions about the future of a project that the government in Libreville had been counting on to underpin its 2026–2028 budget projections. Gabonese Energy Minister Adrien Mengue issued a statement Thursday afternoon calling for 'urgent consultations' with TotalEnergies leadership and signalling that the transitional government, which came to power following the 2023 coup, would consider alternative partnership arrangements if the French major did not recommit within 60 days. Analysts said the standoff could open the door for Chinese state-backed firms CNOOC and Sinopec to deepen their presence in the region.