The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its June policy meeting on Thursday, offering investors the clearest account yet of how policymakers view a possible interest rate cut later this month. The record follows a June employment report showing slower hiring across the US economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee held its benchmark rate steady at its June gathering, and traders have since raised bets on a reduction at the late July meeting. Recent labour data pointing to cooling job growth has strengthened the case among some officials for easing policy sooner.
Economists at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect the minutes to reveal a divide between committee members worried about persistent price pressures and those focused on a weakening jobs market. Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed that the Fed will wait for clearer signals before acting.
Markets are likely to scrutinise any language on inflation risks tied to tariffs and on the labour market's trajectory. Bond yields and the dollar could move sharply if the minutes lean more dovish or hawkish than investors currently anticipate.
The release comes as the S&P 500 trades near record levels, leaving equities exposed to any shift in expectations about the timing and scale of future rate cuts.